Course Description
This course examines how natural hazards can initiate or amplify technological accidents (so-called Natech events) involving releases of hazardous substances, explosions, fires, or cascading infrastructure failures. It provides a systematic framework for identifying, assessing, and managing Natech risks within industrial facilities, energy infrastructure, and surrounding communities.
Participants will learn to integrate process safety, emergency management, and climate-resilience principles into a defensible, standards-aligned risk assessment approach. The course combines presentations, interactive exercises, and real-world case studies drawn from past Natech disasters worldwide.
Learning Objectives
- Identify key natural hazards capable of triggering technological failures.
- Understand the mechanisms of Natech escalation (loss of containment, loss of utilities, structural failure).
- Apply qualitative and quantitative risk-assessment methods specific to Natech scenarios.
- Integrate hazard mapping, vulnerability modeling, and process safety data.
- Evaluate existing safeguards, resilience measures, and emergency response capacities.
- Develop practical Natech risk management and mitigation strategies consistent with industry guidance.
Course Contents
Module 1: Foundations of Natech Risk
- Definitions: natural, technological, and Natech hazards
- Historical overview of major Natech disasters (Fukushima Daiichi, Toulouse AZF, Hurricane Harvey, etc.)
- Global frameworks: (e.g. OECD Natech Guidance, Seveso III Directive)
- Relationship between process safety and natural hazard risk
Module 2: Natural Hazards Relevant to Technological Systems
- Earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, storm surge, wildfire, lightning, high winds, and extreme temperature events
- Site-specific hazard identification and screening methods
- Use of hazard maps, historical databases (e.g., NOAA, USGS), and climate projections
- Emerging trends: compound and cascading hazards under climate change
Module 3 Vulnerability of Industrial Systems to Natural Hazards
Typical Natech failure modes:
- Equipment rupture due to shaking or buoyancy
- Tank flotation and foundation scour
- Power and cooling loss leading to process upset
- Flood-induced chemical reactions
- Fire spread and domino effects
- Assessing physical, functional, and organizational vulnerabilities
- Critical infrastructure interdependencies (power, water, transport, communication)
Module 4: Methods for Natech Risk Assessment
- Screening-level vs. detailed assessments
- Qualitative methods: checklists, risk matrices, HAZID, What-If, Bow-Tie, PHA / LOPA extensions
- Quantitative methods: frequency analysis, fragility curves, consequence modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation
- Data requirements and uncertainty treatment
- Integration with Process Safety Regulatory Requirements (OSHA PSM, EPA RMP, Seveso)
Module 5: Tools and Models
- Overview of analytical and GIS-based Natech tools:
- Geographic data integration and visualization
- Using fragility and damage correlation functions for key equipment (tanks, piping, controls)
- Example workflows combining hazard intensity maps with process unit layouts
Module 6: Risk Communication and Decision-Making
- Presenting Natech risk results to management, regulators, and the public
- Communicating uncertainty and cascading effects
- Multi-criteria decision analysis for risk reduction priorities
- Alignment with corporate risk tolerance and resilience objectives
Module 7: Mitigation, Resilience, and Emergency Preparedness
- Engineering design standards and retrofitting for natural-hazard resistance
- Siting and layout considerations
- Utility redundancy and fail-safe systems
- Emergency planning for compound events
- Business continuity and recovery planning
- Integrating Natech scenarios into drills and response plans
Module 8: Case Studies and Lessons Learned
- Fukushima Daiichi (earthquake + tsunami)
- Hurricane Harvey refinery and chemical releases
- Flood impacts on chemical parks in Central Europe
- Wildfire and power loss–induced accidents in California
- Discussion of key regulatory and corporate lessons
Module 9: Practical Workshop
- Step-by-step Natech risk assessment for a hypothetical industrial site
- Hazard data import and overlay in GIS
- Selection of representative scenarios and estimation of conditional probabilities
- Evaluation of safeguards and barrier performance (Bow-Tie method)
- Development of a risk-reduction plan with cost-benefit reasoning
Duration
- 3 - 5 days
